In Covid-19 Era, STEMI Decreasing may Predicted with Google-Trend Data by Time-series Model
Ali Karagoz1, Flora Özkalaycı2, Hacer Ceren Tokgöz1, Ozgür Yaşar Akbal1, Seda Tanyeri1, Süleyman Cağan Efe1, Berhan Keskin1, Barkın Kültürsay1, Zubeyde Bayram1, Cem Dogan1, Ibrahim Halil Tanboga2, Nihal Ozdemir1, Cihangir Kaymaz1
1Kartal Kosuyolu Eğitim Araştırma Hastanesi, Kardiyoloji, Istanbul, Turkey
2İstinye Üniversitesi İstatistik Anabilim Dalı, Kardiyoloji, Istanbul, Turkey
Keywords: stemi, google trend, covid-19
Objectives: The explanation for the decrease of STEMI due to COVID-19 is poorly described. Our goal is to identify whether there is a temporal association between COVID pandemics and STEMI admissions, and investigate the decreased number of STEMI could be associated to the search volume of Covid, Death measured by Google Trend(GT).
Patients and Methods: We collected our hospital admission of STEMI data and search of covid, death and chest pain in GT search data between 01.March.2020 and 21.May.2020, also we compared to STEMI count same time-limit in previous year. We used vector-autoregressive-model(VAR) to combine the number of Daily new cases STEMI and search index to relative association Daily covid, and death term search in using GT.
Results: During this time-frame we collected a total of 302 STEMI admitted to our hospital, when compared previous year we found 34% reduction. Spearman’s correlation-coefficient between covid, stemi, and death trend with STEMI, results [(-0.560) p<0.001, (-0.631)p<0.001, respectively]. Model-1, and model-2 VAR bivariate analysis results coefficient (-0.532, -2.694 respectively).Also we found Granger-causality for covid and death to STEMI. Impulse response functions (IRF) depictes the STEMI decreased a relatively large amount by death and covid trend.
Conclusion: In the Covid-19 period, our study showed that the uses of Google-Trend data has predict decreasing STEMI cases. Also, plausible Granger causality relationships between covid, death GT data and daily counts of STEMI. GT about Covid and Death might provide to developing appropriate behaviour of patients with the STEMI for healthcare supporter.