In COVID-19 Era, STEMI Decreasing May Predicted with Google-Trend Data by Time-Series Model
Ali Karagöz1, Flora Özkalaycı2, Hacer Ceren Tokgöz1, Özgür Yaşar Akbal1, Seda Tanyeri1, Süleyman Çağan Efe1, Berhan Keskin1, Barkın Kültürsay1, Zübeyde Bayram1, Cem Doğan1, İbrahim Halil Tanboğa2, Nihal Özdemir1, Cihangir Kaymaz1
1Department of Cardiology, Kartal Kosuyolu High Specialization Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey
2Department of Biostatistics and Medical Information, Faculty of Medicine, University of Nisantasi, Istanbul, Turkey
Keywords: STEMI; Google-Trend; COVID-19
Introduction: The explanation for the decrease of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is poorly described. Our goal is to identify whether there is a temporal association between COVID pandemics and STEMI admissions and investigate the decreased number of STEMI could be associated to the search volume of Covid, Death and chest pain, measured by Google-Trend (GT).
Patients and Methods: We collected our hospital admission of STEMI data and search of covid, death and chest pain in GT search data between March 01, 2020 and May 21, 2020, also we compared to STEMI count same time-limit in the previous year. We used vector-autoregressive model (VAR) to combine the number of daily new cases STEMI and search index to relative association daily covid, and death term search in using GT.
Results: During this time-frame, we collected a total of 302 STEMI admitted to our hospital when compared previous year we found a 34% reduction. Spearman’s correlation-coefficient between covid, stemi, and death trend with STEMI, results [(-0.560) p< 0.001, (-0.631) p< 0.001, respectively]; model-1 and model-2 VAR bivariate analysis results in coefficient (-0.532, -2.694), also we found Granger-causality for covid and death to STEMI. Impulse response functions (IRF) depicted the STEMI decreased a relatively large amount by death and covid trend.
Conclusion: In the COVID-19 period, our study showed that the uses of Google-Trend data have predict decreasing STEMI cases. Also, plausible Granger causality relationships between covid, death GT data and daily counts of STEMI. GT about Covid and Death might provide to developing appropriate behaviour of patients with the STEMI for healthcare supporter
This study was approved by the Kartal Kosuyolu High Specialization Training and Research Hospital Ethics Committee (12.01.2021-2021/1/426).
Informed consent was obtained.
Concept/Design - AK, FO, OA, BK, BK; Analysis/Interpretation - AK, FO; Data Collection - AK, FO, HT, BK, CK, SE; Writing - AK, FO, İT, BK; Critical Revision - AK, SE, NO, CK, İT; Final Approval - All of authors; Statistical Analysis - AK, FO; Overall Responsibility - All of authors.
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
The authors declared that this study has received no financial support.